Blue Jays try to continue mastery of Orioles

Baseball Betting Lines

07/27/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Plenty of teams have given the Baltimore Orioles trouble over the course of this season, but none has proven to be a tougher opponent than the Toronto Blue Jays.

Having won all 10 meetings between the American League East foes so far in 2010, Toronto will attempt to extend that astounding streak when it continues a three-game series with the hapless Orioles tonight at the Rogers Centre.

The Blue Jays maintained their recent mastery over Baltimore with a 9-5 triumph in Monday's opener of this set. The win was also Toronto's ninth in a row against the Orioles at the Rogers Centre, where Baltimore has now lost in 14 of its last 15 visits.

Toronto used its trademark power to prevail last night, with Jose Bautista, Aaron Hill and Adam Lind all hitting homers to pace a 13-hit attack. Bautista's blast, a three-run shot off O's starter Brad Bergesen in the fifth inning, gives the 2010 All-Star a major league-best 28 round-trippers this season.

Lind had a solo homer later in the fifth and finished 3-for-4 with two RBI, while Hill had two hits and knocked in three runs to help the Blue Jays to their third win in four games.

"It's been a season of adjustments and trying to figure things out, hopefully, it's starting to come together," said Lind, who's still batting a subpar .222 for the year. "It's been tough, a lot of work. I'm just going to come back [Tuesday] and try to do it all over again."

Jays starter Brandon Morrow (7-6) added six solid innings on the mound to win on his 26th birthday, with the hard-throwing righty holding Baltimore to two runs and striking out six batters.

Bergesen (3-9) wasn't nearly as effective, as the Blue Jays pounded the second-year major-leaguer for eight runs and 10 hits over the first five innings.

"It was a tough one tonight," said Bergesen afterward. "Obviously, that's one you want to get done with and put it behind you. They jumped on me in the fourth inning and got the timely hits they needed."

Baltimore did homer three times in its latest loss, with Matt Wieters going deep twice and driving in three runs. Luke Scott, named the AL's Player of the Week on Monday, had a two-run shot in defeat.

The Blue Jays have now swatted 152 homers on the season, far and away the most of any team in the majors. Twenty-one of them have come in the club's 10 wins over Baltimore.

Ricky Romero has had a hand in two of Toronto's victories over the Orioles this season, and the talented young hurler was quite impressive in both of those outings. The left-hander, who draws the assignment for the Jays this evening, fired a complete-game six-hitter in a 6-1 besting of Baltimore at the Rogers Centre back in May, then yielded just two unearned runs over seven sharp innings to deal the O's another loss on July 16.

Although he won 13 times during a strong rookie campaign in 2009, Romero did have the same success against Baltimore he's enjoyed this season. The former first-round pick went 0-2 with a 5.47 earned run average in four encounters with the Orioles last year, while surrendering five homers in a combined 26 1/3 innings.

Romero followed up his July 16 victory over the Orioles by working a solid seven innings this past Thursday, even though it resulted in a loss to the Detroit Tigers. The 25-year-old was touched for three runs on seven hits that day.

Kevin Millwood gets the call for Baltimore tonight, with the seasoned veteran set to make his second start since returning from a short stint on the disabled list. He managed to pitch 6 1/3 innings in the comeback appearance, but was still hung with a loss after allowing five runs to the Minnesota Twins last Thursday.

The defeat brought Millwood's 2010 record to 2-9 and raised his ERA to 5.82, the highest of his 14-year tenure in the majors. Two of those setbacks have come at the hands of the Blue Jays, including a May 28 loss at the Rogers Centre in which the 35-year-old was reached for five runs (four earned) and gave up a pair of homers over six innings.

Millwood has struggled on the road throughout the year, bringing a 1-5 ledger with a 5.82 ERA in nine away starts into tonight's clash.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.

Big East Conference odds

Work left to do: Villanova, Syracuse, DePaul, West Virginia, Providence

Notre Dame and Louisville appear to have done enough to make the move, so we'll make them locks. The Cardinals, despite a modest RPI, are trending way up and have clinched at least a tie for third in the Big East, which should be more than enough with their pair of big road wins. Villanova got back to .500 and gets back to more solid footing. Syracuse got a very important road win and crippled a fellow contender in the process. West Virginia's fate could be in its hands Tuesday at Pitt.

Work left to do:

Villanova [18-9 (7-7), RPI: 21, SOS: 5] Pounded Rutgers to get back to .500. If Cats can get their last two (at UConn, vs. Syracuse), that should be enough with strong computer numbers and a host of wins away from The Pavilion. The Cats have beaten Texas and swept the Big 5 (never easy in Philly), but have a couple of losses to bubble teams (Xavier, Drexel), too. I still think they'll be OK, possibly even at 8-8.

Syracuse [20-8 (9-5), RPI: 53, SOS: 62] History says 10 wins will be plenty, but it might be hard for the Orange to get that last one with a final two vs. G'town, which is trying to win the league title, and at Villanova, which will be desperate for a W. The relative lack of nonconference heft and the weak computer numbers are still concerns, but the Orange have won four in a row and got a very, very big win at Providence on Saturday.

DePaul [16-12 (8-7), RPI: 54, SOS: 18] Beat Cincy and should get past South Florida to get to 9-7, but then what? They have beaten Kansas and Cal (right after the DeVon Hardin injury) earlier this season, but also have lost to Bradley and Purdue, among others. They'll likely need a couple of BE tourney wins, too, but we'll see ...

West Virginia [19-7 (8-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 125] The game at Pitt on Tuesday night could decide the Mountaineers' fate (barring a deep tournament run). They can still get to 9-7 in the Big East without it by beating Cincinnati, but the nine wins would be against UConn, Villanova, St. John's, South Florida, DePaul, Rutgers, Seton Hall twice and the Bearcats. Beating bubble foes is fine, but where's the beef? Outside of beating PG-less UCLA in nonconference play (still a top quality win), there's not a lot to fall back on (besides maybe NC State). WVU vs. Syracuse would be an interesting debate, as the teams don't play in the Big East regular season. WVU has the best win, but Cuse has played the much better schedule.

Providence [17-10 (7-7), RPI: 70, SOS: 33] The Friars likely saw their at-large hopes die at home in the four-point loss to Syracuse, barring an unexpected run to the Big East semis or more. The RPI, bad already, won't be helped by playing St. John's and South Florida in the final two league games.

For more March Madness odds go to MySportsbook.com

For more College Basketball betting lines go to BettingExpress.com

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