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02/16/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The St. Louis Blues will try to rebound from just their third regulation loss of 2012 when they host the New York Islanders tonight at Scottrade Center.
St. Louis has gone 13-3-2 since the start of January and one of the few games that ended without the Blues gaining a point came in a 2-1 loss at Columbus on Tuesday. The Blues hope to get back on track tonight in the Gateway City, where they've set a club record for most consecutive home games with a point, going 16-0-3 since a 5-2 loss to Chicago on Dec. 3. St. Louis is 24-3-4 at home on the season.
In general, not much has gone wrong for the Blues since they fired head coach Davis Payne and replaced him with Ken Hitchcock back in early November. The club has posted a 28-8-7 record since the coaching change and the Blues haven't lost consecutive games in regulation since Hitchcock took over. That could change tonight, as St. Louis tries to avoid its first 0-2 stretch since it lost in Calgary and Edmonton on Oct. 28 and 30, respectively.
St. Louis is currently the fourth seed in the Western Conference and is three points ahead of Nashville for that distinction. The Blues are also five points behind Detroit for first place in the Central Division.
The Blues fired 32 shots at Steve Mason on Tuesday and only one found its way past the Columbus goaltender. Derek Dorsett scored the game-winning goal for the Blue Jackets at 6:49 of the third period.
David Backes scored the lone goal for St. Louis, which had a four-game winning streak stopped. Jaroslav Halak turned away 31-of-33 shots in defeat.
"We got outplayed for two periods," Hitchcock said. "We outplayed them in the first, but they outplayed us badly in the second and third. They were the better team today."
On the injury front, the Blues have played the last six games without Jason Arnott (shoulder), but the veteran forward is expected to return tonight. Meanwhile, fellow forward Matt D'Agostini has sat out four in a row with a head injury and will miss another game tonight.
The Islanders have posted a 5-2-1 record over their last eight games, as they continue to fight for a spot in the playoffs. With 56 points, New York is currently eight behind Toronto for the East's eighth and final postseason berth.
Evgeni Nabokov was the main reason behind a New York win in its last trip to the ice, as the veteran goaltender stopped 37 shots to help lift the Islanders to Tuesday's 3-1 victory in Winnipeg. The Russian netminder is 8-3 with a 1.56 goals-against average in his last 11 games and he could land a nice price if New York decides to deal him before the Feb. 27 trade deadline.
P.A. Parenteau had a goal and an assist on Tuesday, while Matt Martin and Matt Moulson also scored for the Islanders.
New York has won four straight and six of its last seven road games, improving its record as the guest this season to 12-11-3.
The Isles and Blues have each won three games in their last six meetings against each other. St. Louis has taken two of the last three encounters at Scottrade Center, but the Isles have six wins in their previous eight trips to Missouri.
<< Mighty Rangers host free-falling Blackhawks
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been anything but a smooth ride for the struggling Chicago Blackhawks.
Chicago will try
<< Bulls and Celtics clash in the Windy City
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Central Division-leading Chicago Bulls resume a six-
game homestand tonight aiming for a measure of revenge over the Boston
Celtics.
The Celtics snapped a five-game winning streak by the Bulls in Beantown,
95-91, this
<< Pacers aim to continue dominance over Nets
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The suddenly struggling Indiana Pacers will attempt to
right the ship Thursday when they shoot for a 10th consecutive win over the
New Jersey Nets.
Early in the season the Pacers, who are kicking off a three-game homestand
<< Clippers invade Rip City to take on Blazers
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Pacific Division-leading Los Angeles Clippers invade
Rip City on Thursday to take on a Portland Trail Blazers team that expects to
be without All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge for a second consecutive night.
The Clips returne
Sliding Wild welcome Jets to St. Paul >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The last time the Wild and Jets squared off, Minnesota was
at the top of the NHL standings. Things have certainly changed since.
Minnesota hopes to avoid a sixth straight defeat and falling further back in
the playoff race
Sharks continue trek with test in Tampa >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After splitting the first two tests of an epic nine-game
road trip, the San Jose Sharks will travel to the Sunshine State for tonight's
battle against the Lightning at Tampa Times Forum.
Thanks to a tennis tournament curre
Flames battle Stars in Big D >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Flames have been racking up points so far in February
and their latest convincing victory has them within a point of a playoff spot.
Calgary puts a six-game point streak on the line this evening against the
Dallas Star
Kings welcome Coyotes to LA >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Kings remain the lowest-scoring team in the
league, but perhaps some fresh blood can kick start the offense. It certainly
worked on Sunday.
After capping a six-game road trip with a victory thanks in part t
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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