Braves, Brewers conclude set at Turner Field

Baseball Betting Lines

07/18/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Braves are shooting for a split of a four-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers Sunday afternoon, when the two ballclubs wrap up a lengthy set from Turner Field.

The Braves have dropped two in a row and three of four games since a four-game winning streak and were beaten, 6-3, in Saturday's contest. Tim Hudson was aiming for his 10th win of the season, but was rocked for six runs, including five in the seventh inning, in 6 2/3 innings to fall to 9-5 on the year.

"I wasn't nearly as crisp as I would have liked to be in the seventh," Hudson said after the game.

Matt Diaz hit a two-run homer and Eric Hinske added a solo blast for the Braves, whose lead in the NL East slipped to 4 1/2 games ahead of Philadelphia. The New York Mets are five games behind the Braves.

Struggling Braves starter Derek Lowe gets the nod this afternoon and has lost three straight trips to the hill. He is only 1-4 with a 4.22 earned run average in his last seven starts, with the Braves going 2-5 over that period.

Lowe last pitched in Sunday's 3-0 loss against the Mets and allowed two runs on eight hits over 5 1/3 innings, falling to 9-8 in 19 starts to go along with a 4.35 earned run average.

The right-hander, who is 6-3 in nine home starts this season, beat Milwaukee back on May 12 at Miller Park with six innings of two-run ball in his team's 9-2 win. He is 4-1 in 10 career games (8 starts) against the Brewers.

Milwaukee is playing good baseball right now and will try to win its second straight series today after sweeping Pittsburgh in three games prior to taking two of three matchups so far with the Braves.

Chris Narveson threw six innings of two-run ball and John Axford struck out two batters over 1 1/3 innings of relief for his 11th save. Prince Fielder homered to lead off the decisive seventh inning and Corey Hart stroked a three-run double to highlight the frame.

The game got a little heated as Fielder led off the eighth. The first pitch from Atlanta reliever Jonny Venters sailed over the head of the All-Star first baseman. Home plate umpire Angel Hernandez immediately issued a warning to both benches, but the lefty's next pitch drilled Fielder in the back, resulting in an ejection for him and Braves manager Bobby Cox.

"I was just trying to go right at him," Venters said. "The first one was a breaking ball and it got away from me a little bit. The second pitch was a sinker and it just ran away from me. Unfortunately, it hit him. There was nothing intentional about it. It was a three-run game."

Milwaukee will visit the Pirates for four games after this set and will hand the ball to Manny Parra on Sunday. Parra is just 3-6 with a 4.65 earned run average in 26 games, nine of which have been starts, this season. He was 2-0 in three outings before losing to San Francisco the previous time out on July 8 at Miller Park.

Parra was shelled for six runs -- four earned -- and 10 hits in five innings and has now lost three of his last five decisions. The lefty is 0-1 with an 8.10 ERA in two relief appearances against the Braves this season and is 0-1 in four career games (2 starts) in this series.

The Braves had won five straight and seven of their last eight versus the Brewers before losing on Friday.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.