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09/04/2010 - Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ilya Kovalchuk will finally join the New Jersey Devils after his re-submitted contract was officially and finally approved by the National Hockey League just before 3 a.m. (et) Saturday morning.
The re-worked contract now calls for Kovalchuk to collect a reported $100 million over 15 years, with an annual cap hit of close to $6.66 million. The deal is thought to pay out $90 million in the first 10 years and $10 million over the last five.
Kovalchuk's initial 17-year, $102 million deal with the Devils was rejected by the league on the grounds that it circumvented the league's salary cap. The deal was front-loaded so Kovalchuk could have earned as much money as possible while providing the lowest possible cap hit for the team.
The NHL Players' Association filed a grievance on Kovalchuk's behalf, but an arbitrator ruled in favor of the league. The Russian star, now 27, would be approaching age 43 when the contract expires.
The rejection of the contract provided much debate throughout the league in terms of "lifetime" contracts given to players that have helped reduce the yearly salary cap hit. Several players in previous years signed deals that took them past 40 years of age and saw the annual salary dip below $1 million in the final years of the contract.
The NHL and NHLPA together, did away with those scenarios in one fell swoop Friday, jointly adopting new regulations on such pacts while simultaneoulsy ruling on Kovalchuk's situation after a whirlwind of postponements on a ruling that stretched well into the night.
The new rules will apply only to long-term contracts, five years or longer in length, and only those going forward beyond the September 4 ruling date. All previous contracts are grandfathered in, meaning Kovalchuk's contract will likely be the last of its kind.
To that end, the two entities also announced that the league will terminate its circumvention investigations into the contracts signed in 2009 by Marian Hossa of the Chicago Blackhawks, Roberto Luongo of the Vancouver Canucks, Marc Savard of the Boston Bruins and Chris Pronger of the Philadelphia Flyers.
"We are pleased to finalize an agreement which ends the league's circumvention investigations and also establishes rules on long-term contracts that will provide players, their certified agents and general managers clarity for the negotiation of new contracts," said Roland Lee, associate counsel for the NHLPA and director of Salary Cap/Marketplace. "Turning the page on this process is something that will benefit all parties involved."
Taking into account the NHL's salary cap system and forthcoming CBA negotiations, a special calculation of value will be made in two ways for contracts that extend beyond a player's 41st birthday, and any long-term contract that averages more than $5.75 million for the three highest- compensation years will have rules put into place that limit that player's compensation to a minimum of $1 million between the ages of 36 and 40.
Because of the league's previous rules on player contracts after the age of 35, it was conceivable that someone could retire before a contract had expired, wiping the contract off the salary cap. This rule allowed teams to sign players to front-loaded contracts to benefit both the team and player.
"We're pleased to be able to establish clearly-defined rules for these types of contracts going forward and just as happy we can turn the page on uncertainties relating to several other existing contracts," NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly said. "From start to finish of this multi-week process we were able to work closely and cooperatively with representatives of the Players' Association, who shared our belief that the creation of definitive rules and guidelines in this area would be beneficial to everyone -- clubs and players alike."
Kovalchuk's deal will reportedly take the team about $3 million over the salary cap with 21 players under contract, and the Devils will have to get under the $59.4 million cap before the beginning of the season while adding two more players to the roster.
Kovalchuk posted 41 goals and 85 points in 76 games last season, 10 goals and 27 points coming in 27 games with New Jersey. In a five-game first-round playoff loss, the 27-year-old added two goals and six points.
In 621 games since entering the league in 2001, he has accumulated 338 goals and 642 points with Atlanta and New Jersey.
<< Rockies extend San Diego's losing streak to eight
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two-run homer, as the Colorado Rockies dealt San Diego an eighth consecutive
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Aaron Cook (5-8), who was acti
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Phoenix, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Augie Ojeda's sacrifice fly in the bottom of
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Adam LaRoche went 2-for-4 with two runs batted in and Gerardo Pa
Sisk keeps lead at Mylan Classic >>
Canonsburg, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Geoffrey Sisk remained atop the leaderboard
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Georgia holds A.J. Green out of opener >>
ATHENS, Ga. (AP) -Georgia star receiver A.J. Green is being held out of the Bulldogs' opening game against Louisiana-Lafayette.Georgia spokesman Claude Felton says Green will miss Saturday's game for the No. 23 Bulldogs pending a ruling from the NCA
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Red Sox, White Sox to begin set with double dip >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) -- After mother nature delayed the opening of this important
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The arriv
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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