Atlanta Hawks 2010 Draft Preview

Basketball Betting Lines

06/21/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The winds of change are blowing in Dixie but the weather brewing might be a bit chaotic.

Mike Woodson built the Atlanta Hawks from a 13-win team to a 53-win club but a poor performance in the playoffs against Southeast Division rival Orlando was enough for the team's front office to decide change was needed. The Hawks certainly didn't pull a 180, however, and went with Woodson's lead assistant Larry Drew as the new mentor.

Drew inherits a solid, youthful core to build upon but will likely be without All-Star shooting guard Joe Johnson, who is an unrestricted free agent and expected to move on.

Forward Josh Smith and center Al Horford are the stars, while veteran point guard Mike Bibby is still a steady quarterback and Jamal Crawford is coming off a season in which he was named the NBA's Sixth Man of the Year.

Forwards Marvin Williams and Maurice Evans, along with center Zaza Pachulia and second-year guard Jeff Teague are all solid rotational players.

Horford is the type of banger every team needs and does a yeoman job in the paint but limiting his minutes in the pivot should be a plus. Meanwhile, Bibby is getting a bit long in the tooth and Teague seems more well-suited as a two- way guard coming off the bench.

The depth is this draft is up front but Atlanta could very well use the 24th pick to round out its backcourt and find the heir apparent to Bibby. Nevada guard Armon Johnson, a lefty with decent size, seems like a nice fit. Johnson should be a 10-to-15 minute guy to give Bibby a blow early on with the ability to turn into a starter down the line.

"Realistically, at that area in the draft, you are looking at the best available player," Drew said.

Players under contract: F Josh Smith; C Al Horford; F Marvin Williams; C Zaza Pachulia; G Jamal Crawford; G Mike Bibby; G Maurice Evans; G Jeff Teague

Free agents: G Joe Johnson (unrestricted); F Joe Smith (unrestricted); C Jason Collins (unrestricted); F Randolph Morris (unrestricted)

Draft picks: 1st round (24th overall), 2nd round (53rd overall)

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

NFL Betting Lines

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